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Weather to Arrest

Author

Listed:
  • Howard Bodenhorn

Abstract

The positive correlation between high temperatures and crime is well established. I consider how random, within-month daily high temperature and precipitation affects arrests rather than incidents. I analyze jail records of a Prohibition Era southern city with mean summer daily high temperatures of 85�F without modern air conditioning, so outdoor temperatures are salient. I find that each 1�F increase in daily high temperatures leads to a 0.5% to 1.9% increase in all-offense arrests, with the largest effect on violence. I also find that severe droughts have no meaningful effect on violent or public order offenses but lead to a 17.2% increase in the daily number of arrests for fraud, forgery, and related offenses. The results are consistent with a hypothesis that more arrests occur on hot days because more crimes are committed on hot days. The results are also consistent with studies that identify a connection between droughts and crime in modern developing countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Howard Bodenhorn, 2026. "Weather to Arrest," NBER Working Papers 34867, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34867
    Note: DAE
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law
    • N41 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation - - - U.S.; Canada: Pre-1913

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