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The Impacts of Guaranteed Basic Income on Crime Perpetration and Victimization

Author

Listed:
  • Mikko Aaltonen
  • Martti Kaila
  • Emily E. Nix

Abstract

This paper provides the first experimental evidence on the impact of providing a guaranteed basic income on criminal perpetration and victimization. We analyze a nationwide randomized controlled trial that provided 2,000 unemployed individuals in Finland with an unconditional monthly payment of 560 Euros for two years (2017-2018), while 173,222 comparable individuals remained under the existing social safety net. Using comprehensive administrative data on police reports and district court trials, we estimate precise zero effects on criminal perpetration and victimization. Point estimates are small and statistically insignificant across all crime categories. Our confidence intervals rule out reductions in perpetration of 5 percent or more for crime reports and 10 percent or more for criminal charges.

Suggested Citation

  • Mikko Aaltonen & Martti Kaila & Emily E. Nix, 2025. "The Impacts of Guaranteed Basic Income on Crime Perpetration and Victimization," NBER Working Papers 34547, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34547
    Note: LE LS PE
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law

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