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Beliefs and Portfolios: Causal Evidence

Author

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  • Johannes Beutel
  • Michael Weber

Abstract

We causally test alternative theories of expectation formation. Using a randomized information experiment we show overreaction is a key feature of individuals' return expectations, and individuals' response to the price-earnings ratio is opposite to the academic consensus. Our evidence is inconsistent with standard models of expectation formation but subjective mental models that deviate from objective benchmarks can jointly explain the updating behavior in the experiment, the link between individuals' prior perceptions and expectations, and the heterogeneity of updating. Conditional on their beliefs, individuals' sensitivity of equity shares in a hypothetical portfolio choice experiment is consistent with the standard Merton model.

Suggested Citation

  • Johannes Beutel & Michael Weber, 2025. "Beliefs and Portfolios: Causal Evidence," NBER Working Papers 34489, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34489
    Note: AP ME
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G41 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making in Financial Markets
    • G51 - Financial Economics - - Household Finance - - - Household Savings, Borrowing, Debt, and Wealth
    • G53 - Financial Economics - - Household Finance - - - Financial Literacy

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