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FCI-plot: Central Bank Communication Through Financial Conditions

Author

Listed:
  • Ricardo J. Caballero
  • Alp Simsek

Abstract

We develop a model of central bank communication where market participants' uncertainty about desired financial conditions creates misunderstandings ("tantrums") and amplifies the impact of financial noise on asset prices and economic activity. We show that directly communicating the expected financial conditions path (FCI-plot) eliminates tantrums and recruits arbitrageurs to insulate conditions from noise, while communicating expected interest rates alone fails to achieve these benefits. We demonstrate that scenario-based FCI-plot communication enhances recruitment when participants disagree with the central bank regarding scenario probabilities. This enables an "agree-to-disagree" equilibrium where markets help implement central bank objectives despite differing views.

Suggested Citation

  • Ricardo J. Caballero & Alp Simsek, 2025. "FCI-plot: Central Bank Communication Through Financial Conditions," NBER Working Papers 34325, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34325
    Note: AP EFG IFM ME
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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