A Discrete Choice Analysis of Consumer Decisions: Nicotine Products in an Illicit Market

This study investigates consumer stated preferences for manufactured cigarettes, roll-your-own tobacco, and vapes in Türkiye, with a focus on how product attributes shape choices of adult consumers. A discrete choice experiment embedded in an online survey examines the role of prices of these products, flavor availability, and most importantly the legal status of vapes. Results indicate strong price sensitivity, both to own prices and to the prices of substitutes. In addition, legal status emerges as a critical factor that shapes stated preferences: consumers exhibit a marked aversion to products that are banned or sold illegally. However, scenario analyses suggest that vapes would capture a substantial market share even under strict prohibition. The hypothetical scenario of a complete ban would likely have a modest effect on the cessation of nicotine products while shifting choices toward traditional combustible tobacco products. These findings highlight the limits of prohibition and underscore the importance of regulatory design. In particular, the treatment of legal status, together with pricing and taxation policies, plays a decisive role in shaping consumer behavior and public health outcomes.