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Campaigning for Extinction: Eradication of Sparrows and the Great Famine in China

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Listed:
  • Eyal G. Frank
  • Qinyun Wang
  • Shaoda Wang
  • Xuebin Wang
  • Yang You

Abstract

How do large disruptions to ecosystems affect human well-being? This paper tests the long-standing hypothesis that China's 1958 Four Pests Campaign, which exterminated sparrows despite scientists’ warnings about their pest-control role, exacerbated the Great Famine—the largest in human history. Combining newly digitized data on historical agricultural productivity in China with habitat suitability modeling methods in ecology, we find that, after sparrow eradication, a one-standard-deviation increase in sparrow suitability led to 5.3% larger rice and 8.7% larger wheat declines. State food procurement exacerbated these losses, resulting in a 9.6% higher mortality in high-suitability counties—implying nearly two million excess deaths.

Suggested Citation

  • Eyal G. Frank & Qinyun Wang & Shaoda Wang & Xuebin Wang & Yang You, 2025. "Campaigning for Extinction: Eradication of Sparrows and the Great Famine in China," NBER Working Papers 34087, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34087
    Note: DEV EEE
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    JEL classification:

    • N55 - Economic History - - Agriculture, Natural Resources, Environment and Extractive Industries - - - Asia including Middle East
    • Q50 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - General

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