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A Trade-off Between Monetary Policy Transmission and Systemic Risk

Author

Listed:
  • Kaiji Chen
  • Yiqing Xiao
  • Tao Zha

Abstract

We study how interbank funding links monetary policy transmission to systemic risk in a banking system with heterogeneous access to deposit funding. Using bank-level data from China, we show that monetary policy easing reallocates liquidity through the interbank market: large banks raise household demand deposits and lend in the interbank market, while small banks expand loans through interbank borrowing. During economic downturns, greater reliance on interbank funding is associated with higher systemic risk. To interpret these facts, we build a structural model with deposit-rich and deposit-poor banks and interbank rollover risk. The model shows that monetary policy easing reallocates liquidity and boosts lending, but also raises run risk. It reveals a macroprudential trade-off: a regulatory limit on interbank funding weakens monetary policy transmission but reduces systemic risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Kaiji Chen & Yiqing Xiao & Tao Zha, 2025. "A Trade-off Between Monetary Policy Transmission and Systemic Risk," NBER Working Papers 34056, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34056
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    Cited by:

    1. Ma, Yong & Lan, Huanqi, 2026. "How investment irreversibility shapes firm responses to monetary policy: Evidence from a major earthquake," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    2. Burdekin, Richard C.K. & Siklos, Pierre L., 2026. "Combating crises and deflation: China's monetary policy from financial liberalization through the pandemic," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    3. Jiaxing Weng & Haijun Yang & Tongyu Wang, 2025. "Emergence of Homophily under Contextual Mechanisms," Papers 2510.09821, arXiv.org.
    4. Xu, Yuan & Qi, Yudong & Tan, Haoyan, 2026. "Real estate expansion and the effectiveness of monetary policy: Evidence from China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E02 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Institutions and the Macroeconomy
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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