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Did California's Fast Food Minimum Wage Reduce Employment?

Author

Listed:
  • Jeffrey Clemens
  • Olivia Edwards
  • Jonathan Meer

Abstract

We analyze the effect of California's $20 fast food minimum wage, which was enacted in September 2023 and went into effect in April 2024, on employment in the fast food sector. In unadjusted data from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, we find that employment in California's fast food sector declined by 2.7 percent relative to employment in the fast food sector elsewhere in the United States from September 2023 through September 2024. Adjusting for pre-AB 1228 trends increases this differential decline to 3.2 percent, while netting out the equivalent employment changes in non-minimum-wage-intensive industries further increases the decline. Our median estimate translates into a loss of 18,000 jobs in California's fast food sector relative to the counterfactual.

Suggested Citation

  • Jeffrey Clemens & Olivia Edwards & Jonathan Meer, 2025. "Did California's Fast Food Minimum Wage Reduce Employment?," NBER Working Papers 34033, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34033
    Note: LS PE
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J08 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General - - - Labor Economics Policies
    • J20 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - General
    • J38 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Public Policy

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