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When Do FOMC Voting Rights Affect Monetary Policy?

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Listed:
  • Vyacheslav Fos
  • Nancy R. Xu

Abstract

Using 472 FOMC meetings (1969–2019) and the exogenous rotation of voting rights among Reserve Bank presidents, we identify meetings where local economic conditions in voting districts significantly affect the Federal funds target rate (FFR), while those in non-voting districts show no effect. This voting-group effect persists after controlling for national conditions and Greenbook forecasts, implying that actual FFR decisions plausibly deviated from what average information and expectations would have suggested. Distortions are sizable, persistent, and priced into futures and Treasury markets prior to FOMC meetings. We demonstrate these findings using both components of the Fed’s dual mandate: inflation and unemployment rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Vyacheslav Fos & Nancy R. Xu, 2025. "When Do FOMC Voting Rights Affect Monetary Policy?," NBER Working Papers 33762, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33762
    Note: AP ME
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D7 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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