IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/33739.html

Tariffs and Retaliation: A Brief Macroeconomic Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Stéphane Auray
  • Michael B. Devereux
  • Aurélien Eyquem

Abstract

We quantify the macroeconomic effects of the tariff measures announced (but not entirely implemented yet) on Liberation Day (April 2nd, 2025) through the lens of a New-Keynesian two-country model calibrated to the US and the rest of the world. We study both a unilateral 10pp tariff increase and a global trade war scenario with retalia- tory tariffs of a similar magnitude. In either case, tariffs are always sharply contractionary for US GDP, increasing inflation and widening the trade deficit. Measured in welfare terms a unilateral tariff generates gains for the US due to a large terms of trade appreciation, but these US welfare gains vanish with global retaliation. Three features of the model are critical in the evaluation of the tariff impact - the asymmetry in size and openness between the US and the rest of the world, the endogenous response of monetary policy to the inflationary effects of tariffs, and the importance of trade in intermediate goods for the scale of the global response to a tariff shock.

Suggested Citation

  • Stéphane Auray & Michael B. Devereux & Aurélien Eyquem, 2025. "Tariffs and Retaliation: A Brief Macroeconomic Analysis," NBER Working Papers 33739, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33739
    Note: IFM
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w33739.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Khalil, Makram & Rouillard, Pierre & Strobel, Felix, 2025. "Import tariff transmission in a production network," MPRA Paper 125698, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Moro, Alessandro & Nispi Landi, Valerio, 2026. "FraNK: Fragmentation in the NK Model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    3. Kalina Manova & Dennis Novy & Aaron Tang & Thomas Sampson, 2026. "Tariff Confusion," CESifo Working Paper Series 12787, CESifo.
    4. Suwanprasert, Wisarut, 2026. "Exchange rate responses to the 2025 U.S. Liberation Day tariff announcement," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 186(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33739. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.