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Credit, Land Speculation, and Low-Interest-Rate Policy

Author

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  • Tomohiro Hirano
  • Joseph E. Stiglitz

Abstract

This paper analyses the impact of credit expansions arising from increases in collateral values or lower interest rate policies on long-run productivity and economic growth in a two-sector endogenous growth economy with credit frictions, with the driver of growth lying in one sector (manufacturing) but not in the other (real estate). We show that it is not so much aggregate credit expansion that matters for long-run productivity and economic growth but sectoral credit expansions. Credit expansions associated mainly with relaxation of real estate financing (capital investment financing) will be productivity-and growth-retarding (enhancing). Without financial regulations, low interest rates and more expansionary monetary policy may so encourage land speculation using leverage that productive capital investment and economic growth are decreased. Unlike in standard macroeconomic models, in ours, the equilibrium price of land will be finite even if the safe rate of interest is less than the rate of output growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Tomohiro Hirano & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 2025. "Credit, Land Speculation, and Low-Interest-Rate Policy," NBER Working Papers 33661, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33661
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    Cited by:

    1. Muellbauer, John, 2025. "Land, Housing and the British Economy: background paper," INET Oxford Working Papers 2025-25, Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford, revised Feb 2026.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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