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Mistrust, Misperception, and Misunderstanding: Imperfect Information and Conflict Dynamics

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  • Daron Acemoglu
  • Alexander Wolitzky

Abstract

Building on theories of international relations, we analyze how mistrust (uncertainty about an adversary's preferences or capabilities), misperception (imperfect observation of an adversary's actions), and misunderstanding (non-degenerate higher-order beliefs) can lead to conflict and drive its dynamics. We develop our analysis in the context of three classic models: a one-shot security dilemma or spiral model; a repeated version of the security dilemma that allows for gradual learning about the opponent's type, as well as the possibility of conflict spirals, traps, and cycles; and a deterrence model. We relate these models to the empirical literature and to current and historical episodes of conflict.

Suggested Citation

  • Daron Acemoglu & Alexander Wolitzky, 2023. "Mistrust, Misperception, and Misunderstanding: Imperfect Information and Conflict Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 31681, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31681
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    Cited by:

    1. Rusch, Hannes, 2023. "The logic of human intergroup conflict:," Research Memorandum 014, Maastricht University, Graduate School of Business and Economics (GSBE).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C73 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Stochastic and Dynamic Games; Evolutionary Games
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • P00 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - General - - - General

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