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Biased Memory and Perceptions of Self-Control

Author

Listed:
  • Afras Y. Sial
  • Justin R. Sydnor
  • Dmitry Taubinsky

Abstract

Using data from a field experiment on exercise, we analyze the relationship between imperfect memory and people's awareness of their limited self-control. We find that people overestimate past gym attendance, and that larger overestimation of past attendance is associated with (i) more overestimation of future attendance, (ii) a lower willingness to pay to motivate higher future gym attendance, and (iii) a smaller gap between goal and forecasted attendance. We organize these facts with a structural model of quasi-hyperbolic discounting and naivete, estimating that people with more biased memories are more naive about their time inconsistency, but not more time-inconsistent.

Suggested Citation

  • Afras Y. Sial & Justin R. Sydnor & Dmitry Taubinsky, 2023. "Biased Memory and Perceptions of Self-Control," NBER Working Papers 30825, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30825
    Note: AG EH PE
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D9 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior

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