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The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President: 1984 Update

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  • Ray C. Fair

Abstract

In previous work I have developed an equation explaining votes for president in the United States that seems to have a remarkable predictive ability. In this paper the equation is updated through the 1984 election and then used to predict the 1988 election.

Suggested Citation

  • Ray C. Fair, 1987. "The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President: 1984 Update," NBER Working Papers 2222, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2222
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Stigler, George J, 1973. "General Economic Conditions and National Elections," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(2), pages 160-167, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Brendan O'Flaherty, 1990. "The Care And Handling Of Monetary Authorities," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(1), pages 25-44, March.
    2. Ron Shachar, 1993. "Forgetfulness And The Political Cycle," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(1), pages 15-25, March.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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