Labour Force Survey in Poland, 1995–2020. A Proposal for Data Revision

The Labour Force Survey (LFS) (pol. Badanie Aktywności Ekonomicznej Ludności – BAEL) is a key labour market study used both for estimating the most important labour market indicators and for conducting in-depth analyses. The survey results provide unique, highly detailed information on, among other things, economic activity, employment, economic inactivity, and unemployment. The population to which the BAEL results are generalized is adjusted every 10 years based on census results. After each census, the Statistics Poland (GUS) revises historical data based on the new population structure, but only going back a few years, which causes problems with the comparability of results over time. At the same time, these data are characterized by numerous periods of disrupted comparability caused by changes in the survey methodology over the years. In particular, the new classification of the respondents’ status on the labour market introduced in 2021 and the modified definition of the reference population have led to a break in the continuity of time series. The aim of this paper is to present a proposed correction to historical LFS data that will enable the construction of comparable and methodologically consistent data covering a long time period since 1995. This procedure consists of two stages: (1) adjusting the weights used to generalize the study results, and (2) adjusting the labour market status classification, thus unifying it across the entire analyzed time period. This procedure, to the best of the authors' knowledge, allows for the most accurate reconciliation of population series and labour market status since 1995. This allows for the implementation of analyses and in-depth forecasts on the longest possible time series. The following sections of this work outline the subsequent stages of deriving the final form of the proposed Polish LFS (BAEL) time series. The underlying assumptions and statistical methods used to obtain the presented results are described in detail. The final section contains conclusions and implications for the analysis of developments in the Polish labour market. The procedure presented here can also be used in the context of other representative surveys, such as the national Household Budget Survey (BBGD) conducted by the Statistics Poland (GUS), as well as international surveys such as the Labour Force Survey (LFS). The adjusted Polish LFS (BAEL) time series are available in a separate Excel file, which allows other researchers to use the adjusted data in their analyses of the Polish labour market.