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The impact of climate transition policies on Belgian firms – what can we learn from a survey?

Author

Listed:
  • Raïsa Basselier

    (Economics and Research Department, National Bank of Belgium)

  • Nabil Bouamara

    (Economics and Research Department, National Bank of Belgium)

  • Geert Langenus

    (Economics and Research Department, National Bank of Belgium)

  • Gert Peersman

    (University of Ghent)

  • Peter Reusens

    (Economics and Research Department, National Bank of Belgium)

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of current and future climate transition policies on Belgian firms as they approach the 2030 milestone set by the European Green Deal. Using data from an online survey conducted with members of key Belgian employers’ federations, we assess the effects on firms’ costs, pricing, demand, and investment decisions. The climate transition is largely perceived as a classical negative supply shock, resulting in higher prices, squeezed profit margins, and reduced activity. While the impact on Belgian investment remains ambiguous, part of production capacity – particularly in manufacturing – is expected to shift outside the EU. A scenario analysis and an information experiment embedded within the survey show that an increase in the carbon price beyond firms’ current expectations could exacerbate these adverse effects. Survey participants also express widespread scepticism about the EU's ability to meet its ‘Fit for 55’ targets, citing high costs, reduced profitability, unclear policy guidance and administrative burdens as major impediments.

Suggested Citation

  • Raïsa Basselier & Nabil Bouamara & Geert Langenus & Gert Peersman & Peter Reusens, 2024. "The impact of climate transition policies on Belgian firms – what can we learn from a survey?," Working Paper Research 468, National Bank of Belgium.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbb:reswpp:202409-468
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    File URL: https://www.nbb.be/nl/articles/impact-climate-transition-policies-belgian-firms-what-can-we-learn-survey
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business surveys; Firms; Climate transition; Randomized information provision.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C83 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Survey Methods; Sampling Methods
    • C93 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Field Experiments
    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy

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