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Fertiliser and nutrient prices: A multivariate time series analysis

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Abstract

The application of fertilisers is a fundamental aspect of soil fertility conservation. In recent decades, the growth in agricultural output has led to a significant increase in demand for fertilisers. The global fertiliser market is characterised by significant volatility and sensitivity to shifts in the global geopolitical landscape. In recent years, events such as the Russian aggression against Ukraine or export restrictions by the Chinese authorities have resulted in a considerable rise in prices and an increase in uncertainty about future behaviour. In this study, the prices of fertilisers typically available in Spain are employed to forecast not only the prices of fertilisers, but also those of essential macronutrients, namely nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium. Forecasting the prices of essential nutrients can inform the environmental assessment of human activities that modify the composition of soil nutrients.

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  • María Jesus Campion Arrastia & Emilio Dominguez Irastorza & Nuria Oses Eraso & Julen Perales Barriendo, 2024. "Fertiliser and nutrient prices: A multivariate time series analysis," Documentos de Trabajo - Lan Gaiak Departamento de Economía - Universidad Pública de Navarra 2402, Departamento de Economía - Universidad Pública de Navarra.
    • Handle: RePEc:nav:ecupna:2402
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