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Canadian Regional Cycles; the Quebec-Ontario Case Reexamined

Listed author(s):
  • Raynauld, J.

De la Fin des Annees Cinquante au Debut des Annees Soixante-Dix, la Question des Cycles Regionaux et Plus Particulierement le Cas du Quebec et de L'ontario a Fait L'objet de Plusieurs Etudes. le Consensus Empirique Obtenu Voulait Que les Fluctuations Economiques Quebecoises Soient Plus Marquees Que Celles de L'ontario, Provoquant Ainsi un Elargissement de Ecarts de Taux de Chomage En Periode de Recession. le But de la Presente Recherche Est de Reexaminer Cette Question a la Lumiere de Nouvelles Donnees et de Techniques Plus Appropriees. a Cet Egard, la Question des Cycles Ontariens et Quebecois Sera Etudiee Dans le Cadre D'un Modele Autoregressif Vectoriel Bayesien; Developpe Recemment Par Litterman (1979) et Doan, Litterman et Sims (1984), Ce Type de Methodologie Est Particulierement Bien Adapte a la Question des Cycles Regionaux. les Resultats Obtenus a L'aide de Donnees Mensuelles (Emploi Total, 1966-1984) Ne Confirment Pas le Consensus Empirique Actuel. En Simulant une Recession Americaine, Il Nous Est Possible de Montrer Que L'ontario Est Affectee Plus Durement et Plus Rapidement Que le Quebec. Ceci Se Traduit Par un Retrecissement des Ecarts En Periode de Recession.

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Paper provided by Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques in its series Cahiers de recherche with number 8539.

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Length: 30P. pages
Date of creation: 1985
Handle: RePEc:mtl:montde:8539
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