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Categorical versus graded beliefs

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Abstract

This essay discusses the difficulty to reconcile two paradigms about beliefs: the binary or categorical paradigm of yes/no beliefs and the probabilistic paradigm of degrees of belief. The possibility for someone to hold beliefs of both types simultaneously is challenged by the lottery paradox, and more recently by a general impossibility theorem. The nature, relevance, and implications of the tension are explained and assessed. A more technical elaboration can be found in Dietrich and List (2018, 2021)

Suggested Citation

  • Franz Dietrich, 2021. "Categorical versus graded beliefs," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 21032r, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne, revised Feb 2022.
    • Handle: RePEc:mse:cesdoc:21032r
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    File URL: https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-03500542
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    Cited by:

    1. Minkyung Wang, 2024. "Aggregating individual credences into collective binary beliefs: an impossibility result," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 97(1), pages 39-66, August.

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    JEL classification:

    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness

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