Changes in the Implicit Debt Burden of the Hungarian Social Security System
The paper studies the implicit debt burden of the Hungarian social security system, and especially its changes after certain real and hypothetical reform measures. It uses a computer simulation of a demographic model. The most important results are the following. The Hungarian implicit debt burden, prior to the 1998 reform, was quite substantial but not extraordinarily high in an international comparison. As the result of the implemented reforms, it has decreased from 100% of 1995 GDP to roughly 40% of it. This is equivalent to a permanent budget cut of approximately 1.5% of GDP per year. If we smooth the cyclicality of the late 90s less, then these measures are even better. Considering further reform scenarios, the only promising direction (let alone the unrealistic 5% improvement in revenue collection) was the decrease of the size of the first (PAYG) pillar of pensions. Cutting contribution rates (which is a current policy proposal) seems absolutely infeasible from a long-run perspective.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mnb:wpaper:1999/8. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Lorant Kaszab)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.