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Stress testing at the Magyar Nemzeti Bank


  • Ádám Banai

    () (Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the central bank of Hungary))

  • Zsuzsanna Hosszú

    () (Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the central bank of Hungary))

  • Gyöngyi Körmendi

    () (Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the central bank of Hungary))

  • Sándor Sóvágó

    () (Tinbergen Institute (MPhil student))

  • Róbert Szegedi

    () (Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the central bank of Hungary))


Our study presents the top-down stress testing framework currently used by the Magyar Nemzeti Bank. We run separate solvency and liquidity stress tests to analyse the ability of the banking system to absorb shocks and we present their results in our Report on Financial Stability. In the former, we focus mostly on credit risk but also take into account losses due to market risks. Our study explains in detail the method we apply to quantify the impact of a negative two-year macroeconomic shock on the capital adequacy ratio. We explain the models we use for calculating profit before loan losses, PDs and LGD. We also demonstrate how we measure the impact of an intensive 30-day liquidity shock on the banking system. Finally, we use the stress test completed in the spring of 2013 to explain in detail how the results should be interpreted and what conclusions we can draw from them.

Suggested Citation

  • Ádám Banai & Zsuzsanna Hosszú & Gyöngyi Körmendi & Sándor Sóvágó & Róbert Szegedi, 2014. "Stress testing at the Magyar Nemzeti Bank," MNB Occasional Papers 2014/109, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
  • Handle: RePEc:mnb:opaper:2014/109

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Carroll, Christopher D., 2009. "Precautionary saving and the marginal propensity to consume out of permanent income," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 780-790, September.
    2. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Neil R. Mehrotra, 2014. "A Model of Secular Stagnation," NBER Working Papers 20574, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Jessica Baker & Oriol Carreras & Monique Ebell & Ian Hurst & Simon Kirby & Jack Meaning & Rebecca Piggott & James Warren, 2016. "The Short–Term Economic Impact of Leaving the EU," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 236(1), pages 108-120, May.
    4. Baker, Jessica & Carreras, Oriol & Kirby, Simon & Meaning, Jack & Piggott, Rebecca, 2016. "Modelling events: The short-term economic impact of leaving the EU," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 339-350.
    5. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    6. Christopher D. Carroll, 2001. "A Theory of the Consumption Function, with and without Liquidity Constraints," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(3), pages 23-45, Summer.
    7. Jonathan Portes, 2016. "Immigration, Free Movement and the EU Referendum," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 236(1), pages 14-22, May.
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    More about this item


    stress test; liquidity risk; credit risk;

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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