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Inflation persistence in the euro-area, US, and new members of the EU: Evidence from time-varying coefficient models

Author

Listed:
  • Zsolt Darvas

    (Corvinus University of Budapest)

  • Balázs Varga

    (Corvinus University of Budapest)

Abstract

This paper studies inflation persistence with time-varying-coefficient autoregressions in response to recently discovered structural breaks in historical inflation time series of the euro-area and the US. To this end, we compare the statistical properties of the well known ML estimation using the Kalman-filter and the less known Flexible Least Squares estimator by Monte Carlo simulation. We also suggest a procedure for selecting the weight for FLS based on an iterative Monte Carlo simulation technique calibrated to the time series in question. We apply the methods for the study of inflation persistence of the US, the euro-area and the new members of the EU

Suggested Citation

  • Zsolt Darvas & Balázs Varga, 2007. "Inflation persistence in the euro-area, US, and new members of the EU: Evidence from time-varying coefficient models," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 137, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  • Handle: RePEc:mmf:mmfc06:137
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    File URL: http://www.uni-corvinus.hu/darvas/pdf/Darvas_Varga_PERSIST_paper.pdf
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    File URL: http://repec.org/mmf2006/up.21061.1145742414.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Nicola Anderson & John Sleath, 2001. "New estimates of the UK real and nominal yield curves," Bank of England working papers 126, Bank of England.
    2. Gerlach, Stefan & Smets, Frank, 1997. "Exchange Rate Regimes and the Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure," CEPR Discussion Papers 1752, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Christopher Adam & David Cobham & Eric Girardin, 2005. "Monetary Frameworks and Institutional Constraints: UK Monetary Policy Reaction Functions, 1985-2003," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(4), pages 497-516, August.
    4. Gerlach, Stefan & Smets, Frank, 1997. "The term structure of Euro-rates: some evidence in support of the expectations hypothesis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 305-321, April.
    5. Engsted, Tom & Tanggaard, Carsten, 1995. " The Predictive Power of Yield Spreads for Future Interest Rates: Evidence from the Danish Term Structure," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 97(1), pages 145-159, March.
    6. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1987. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1062-1088, October.
    7. Kugler, Peter, 2002. "The term premium, time varying interest rate volatility and central bank policy reaction," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 311-316, August.
    8. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1991. "Yield Spreads and Interest Rate Movements: A Bird's Eye View," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(3), pages 495-514.
    9. Tzavalis, Elias & Wickens, Michael R, 1997. "Explaining the Failures of the Term Spread Models of the Rational Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(3), pages 364-380, August.
    10. Bennett T. McCallum, 2005. "Monetary policy and the term structure of interest rates," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Fall, pages 1-21.
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    Cited by:

    1. Michal Franta & Branislav Saxa & Kateøina Šmídková, 2010. "The Role of Inflation Persistence in the Inflation Process in the New EU Member States," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 60(6), pages 480-500, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    flexible least squares; inflation persistence; Kalman-filter; time-varying coefficient models;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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