Trade Policy, Constituent Interest and Polics in US-Japan Economic Relations
To date, virtually all the equity market literature analyzing the consequences of trade policy changes has assessed only the impact on the home country. Almost no attempt has been made to use equity-market data to assess simultaneously the impact of policy changes on the welfare of trading partners. Nor has this equity market literature attempted to evaluate the impact of trade negotiations. This paper attempts to work in both these neglected areas by assessing the impact on the value of selected equities in the United States and Japan of: (1) the enactment of the so-called "Super 301" legislation; (2) the inclusion of a significantly strengthened Dispute Settlement Mechanism in the final Uruguay Round Agreement; and (3) the Japan-U.S. Automobile Agreement of June 1995. In addition, the domestic political impact of operating in the post-Uruguay Round international economic environment is examined by evaluating the results of the Japan-U.S. Automobile Agreement using evidence from the Iowa Presidential Stock Market.
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