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L'attività fieristica come indicatore congiunturale: evidenza empirica dalla base dati Fiera Milano

Listed author(s):
  • Emilio Colombo


    (Department of Economics, University of Milan-Bicocca)

  • Luca Matteo Stanca


    (Department of Economics, University of Milan-Bicocca and London School of Economics)

Questo lavoro fornisce una valutazione del contenuto informativo di indicatori della attività fieristica per l'analisi e la previsione congiunturale. A tale scopo l'analisi utilizza la base dati di Fieramilano, studiando i comovimenti tra diversi indicatori dell'attività fieristica e variabili macroeconomiche di riferimento, sia a livello aggregato che a livello disaggregato. L'analisi condotta evidenzia un pattern sistematico nei comovimenti tra numerosi indicatori fieristici esaminati e le variabili di riferimento. Per alcuni indicatori sia l'analisi di correlazione che l'analisi dei punti di svolta evidenziano un chiaro comportamento leading. Tale comportamento è stabile nel corso del tempo e robusto rispetto al metodo di detrendizzazione. L'analisi previsionale mostra una maggiore sensitività dei risultati rispetto al tipo di indicatore utilizzato, ma conferma, per alcune delle serie analizzate, la presenza di un significativo contenuto previsionale.

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File Function: First version, 2001
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Paper provided by University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 35.

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Length: 81 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2001
Date of revision: Apr 2001
Handle: RePEc:mib:wpaper:35
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