An Approximate Dynamic Programming Framework for Modeling Global Climate Policy under Decision-Dependent Uncertainty
Analyses of global climate policy as a sequential decision under uncertainty have been severely restricted by dimensionality and computational burdens. Therefore, they have limited the number of decision stages, discrete actions, or number and type of uncertainties considered. In particular, other formulations have difficulty modeling endogenous or decision-dependent uncertainties, in which the shock at time t+1 depends on the decision made at time t. In this paper, we present a stochastic dynamic programming formulation of the Dynamic Integrated Model of Climate and the Economy (DICE), and the application of approximate dynamic programming techniques to numerically solve for the optimal policy under uncertain and decision-dependent technological change. We compare numerical results using two alternative value function approximation approaches, one parametric and one non-parametric. Using the framework of dynamic programming, we show that an additional benefit to near-term emissions reductions comes from a probabilistic lowering of the costs of emissions reductions in future stages, which increases the optimal level of near-term actions.
|Date of creation:||Sep 2011|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 77 Massachusetts Ave. (Building E40-279), Cambridge, MA 02139-4307|
Phone: (617) 253-3551
Fax: (617) 253-9845
Web page: http://tisiphone.mit.edu/RePEc
More information through EDIRC
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mee:wpaper:1118. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sharmila Ganguly)The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask Sharmila Ganguly to update the entry or send us the correct email address
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.