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Dynamique de la pauvreté au Bénin: approche par le processus

Author

Listed:
  • Assogba Hodonou
  • Damien Mededj
  • Armande Gninanfon
  • Astherve Totin

Abstract

Dans ce papier, le modèle markovien a été utilisé pour analyser la dynamique de la pauvreté au Bénin. En supposant que les changements d’états de bien-être observés au niveau d’un ménage se présentent comme une chaîne de Markov, la méthode de « first-step-analysis » a été utilisée pour dériver plusieurs indicateurs permettant de mesurer la pertinence des politiques de réduction de la pauvreté mises en œuvre au Bénin. Les données utilisées proviennent d’un panel de 16.562 ménages sur deux années 2006 et 2007. Il ressort de cette analyse que le Bénin réalisera son objectif de 15% d’extrêmes pauvres d’ici à 2015 probablement avec cinq ans de retard. Il existe aussi une forte mobilité de bien-être caractérisée par un phénomène de sortie de pauvreté assez important. Les politiques de lutte contre la pauvreté mises en œuvre entre 2006 et 2007 ont donc été assez efficaces. Elles favorisent une promotion sociale durable.

Suggested Citation

  • Assogba Hodonou & Damien Mededj & Armande Gninanfon & Astherve Totin, 2010. "Dynamique de la pauvreté au Bénin: approche par le processus," Working Papers PMMA 2010-01, PEP-PMMA.
    • Handle: RePEc:lvl:pmmacr:2010-01
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Chaîne de Markov; Dynamique de la pauvreté; Modèle ordonné; Bénin;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
    • I31 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - General Welfare, Well-Being
    • I32 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty

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