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Fragilité régionale, capacité de l’État et guerre civile

Author

Listed:
  • Arthur Silve
  • Thierry Verdier

Abstract

Il est fréquent que de voir des guerres civiles éclater simultanément dans des pays voisins. Ceci tient notamment à ce que ces pays présentent des caractéristiques communes, et aussi à ce qu’une guerre civile favorise l’apparition de conflits dans les pays voisins. La littérature empirique dissocie habituellement ces deux explications. Nous proposons un modèl de la contagion des guerres civiles, qui illustre que certaines caractéristiques des pays sont affectées par le risque de contagion. En particulier, un gouvernement peut éviter la contagion en investissant dans la qualité de ses institutions. La complémentarité stratégique entre les institutions de pays voisins génère des regroupements de pays selon leur capacité étatique. Ceci suggère que les effets de contagion ont pu jusque là être sous-estimés par la littérature empirique.

Suggested Citation

  • Arthur Silve & Thierry Verdier, 2018. "Fragilité régionale, capacité de l’État et guerre civile," Cahiers de recherche 1818, Centre de recherche sur les risques, les enjeux économiques, et les politiques publiques.
    • Handle: RePEc:lvl:crrecr:1818
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    Keywords

    guerre civile; contagion; capacité étatique;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • N40 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • P48 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Other Economic Systems - - - Legal Institutions; Property Rights; Natural Resources; Energy; Environment; Regional Studies

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