The Sustainability of Economic Recovery in the United States: The Risks to Consumption and Investment

From this paper's Preface, by Dr. Dimitri B. Papadimitriou, President: A rebound of consumption, investment, and consumer confidence in the second half of 2003 has raised hopes that the U.S. economic recovery from the 2001 recession is on a sustainable course. According to this brief by Philip Arestis and Elias Karakitsos, however, the trend in the short-term factors affecting the economy has changed for the better, but long-term factors remain at risk. Slow, rather than rapid, economic growth is better in 2004, the authors say, as rapid growth would result in higher long-term interest rates, which would threaten the property market boom and weaken investment in 2005 and beyond. The authors are sure, however, that the current administration will find it difficult to refrain from additional procyclical fiscal stimulus in light of the upcoming presidential election. The result could lead to a rapidly declining U.S. economic growth rate following the election in November.