IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Cyclical Mackey Glass Model for Oil Bull Seasonal


  • Sadek MELHEM
  • Michel TERRAZA
  • Mohamed CHIKHI


In this article, we propose an innovative way for modelling oil bull seasonals taking into account seasonal speculations in oil markets. Since oil prices behave very seasonally during two periods of the year (summer and winter), we propose a modification of Mackey Glass equation by taking into account the rhythm of seasonal frequencies. Using monthly data for WTI oil prices, Seasonal Cyclical Mackey Glass estimates indicate that seasonal interactions between heterogeneous speculators with different expectations may be responsible for pronounced swings in prices in both periods. Moreover, the seasonal frequency / 3(referring to a period of 6 months) appears to be persistent over time.

Suggested Citation

  • Sadek MELHEM & Michel TERRAZA & Mohamed CHIKHI, 2011. "Cyclical Mackey Glass Model for Oil Bull Seasonal," Working Papers 11-10, LAMETA, Universtiy of Montpellier, revised May 2011.
  • Handle: RePEc:lam:wpaper:11-10

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    File Function: First version, 2011
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Benjamin E. Hermalin & Michael L. Katz, 2004. "Sender or Receiver: Who Should Pay to Exchange an Electronic Message?," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 35(3), pages 423-447, Autumn.
    2. Hsing Kenneth Cheng & Subhajyoti Bandyopadhyay & Hong Guo, 2011. "The Debate on Net Neutrality: A Policy Perspective," Information Systems Research, INFORMS, vol. 22(1), pages 60-82, March.
    3. Nicholas Economides & Benjamin E. Hermalin, 2012. "The economics of network neutrality," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 43(4), pages 602-629, December.
    4. Economides, Nicholas & Tåg, Joacim, 2012. "Network neutrality on the Internet: A two-sided market analysis," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 91-104.
    5. Jan Kraemer & Lukas Wiewiorra, 2010. "Network Neutrality and Congestion Sensitive Content Providers: Implications for Service Innovation, Broadband Investment and Regulation," Working Papers 10-09, NET Institute, revised Sep 2010.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item


    Oil bull seasonal; Seasonal speculations; Heterogeneous agents model; Seasonal Cyclical Mackey Glass models.;

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:lam:wpaper:11-10. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Patricia Modat). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.