IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this paper



  • Kenn Ariga

    () (Institute of Economic Research, Kyoto University)

  • Ryosuke Okazawa

    (Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University)


There exist many symptoms and emerging economic trends suggesting that the Japanese economy is headed in the direction where many European economies ended up in much of 1980s and 1990s. This paper makes highly speculative long-run forecast, based upon a comparison of two stylized models of the Japanese and "Euro" labor markets. We argue that Japano-Sclerosis, if there is one, should look rather different from Eurosclerosis in 1980s and 1990s. Our forecasts are the following. (1) Because of the resilience of the unique recruiting system of the school leavers, the Japanese economy is unlikely to face chronic high unemployment and joblessness, which plagued the Euro economies for decades, whereas (2) the chronic problem in the labor market is more likely to manifest itself as extremely low labor turnovers, and stagnant output growth and earnings. (3) Both circumstantial evidence and model implication suggest that the core characteristics of the Japanese labor market will remain unchanged even if the stagnation of the economy continues or even worsens in the future..

Suggested Citation

  • Kenn Ariga & Ryosuke Okazawa, 2010. "Japano-Sclerosis?," KIER Working Papers 703, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:kyo:wpaper:703

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. Esteban-Pretel, Julen & Fujimoto, Junichi, 2012. "Life-cycle search, match quality and Japan’s labor market," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 326-350.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kyo:wpaper:703. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ryo Okui). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.