There exist many symptoms and emerging economic trends suggesting that the Japanese economy is headed in the direction where many European economies ended up in much of 1980s and 1990s. This paper makes highly speculative long-run forecast, based upon a comparison of two stylized models of the Japanese and "Euro" labor markets. We argue that Japano-Sclerosis, if there is one, should look rather different from Eurosclerosis in 1980s and 1990s. Our forecasts are the following. (1) Because of the resilience of the unique recruiting system of the school leavers, the Japanese economy is unlikely to face chronic high unemployment and joblessness, which plagued the Euro economies for decades, whereas (2) the chronic problem in the labor market is more likely to manifest itself as extremely low labor turnovers, and stagnant output growth and earnings. (3) Both circumstantial evidence and model implication suggest that the core characteristics of the Japanese labor market will remain unchanged even if the stagnation of the economy continues or even worsens in the future..
|Date of creation:||Jul 2010|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Yoshida-Honmachi, Sakyo-ku, Kyoto 606-8501|
Web page: http://www.kier.kyoto-u.ac.jp/eng/index.html
More information through EDIRC
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kyo:wpaper:703. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ryo Okui)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.