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Power Shifts, Emigration, and Population Sorting

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Abstract

We investigate the consequences of a peaceful shift of power from one social group to another. Theoretically, we show that an individual’s decision to stay put or migrate depends on the difference between the political preferences of groups and the change in tax. Empirically, we use the case of the unexpected creation of the Canton of Jura in Switzerland, which witnessed a power shift from German to French speakers in the 1970s. We find robust evidence supporting the model’s predictions using data at the municipal and individual levels. Our research sheds light on population sorting in the shadow of power transitions.

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  • Michaël Aklin & Vera Eichenauer, 2022. "Power Shifts, Emigration, and Population Sorting," KOF Working papers 22-502, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    • Handle: RePEc:kof:wpskof:22-502
    DOI: 10.3929/ethz-b-000546433
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    JEL classification:

    • H31 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Household
    • H77 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - Intergovernmental Relations; Federalism
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • J15 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Minorities, Races, Indigenous Peoples, and Immigrants; Non-labor Discrimination

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