IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Catching a floating treasure


  • Eva Koeberl
  • Christian Mueller


Forecasting real economic activity poses a considerable challenge not only due to hard-to-predict events like the current financial crisis but also due to the fact that targeted variables often undergo significant revisions after their first publication. In this paper we report the results of a genuine ex-ante forecasting experiment in real time. It highlights the difficulties of hitting a moving target and shows that in a realistic setting linear models in combination with survey data perform as good as much more sophisticated approaches.

Suggested Citation

  • Eva Koeberl & Christian Mueller, 2012. "Catching a floating treasure," KOF Working papers 12-297, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
  • Handle: RePEc:kof:wpskof:12-297

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Baumol, William J, 1982. "Contestable Markets: An Uprising in the Theory of Industry Structure," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(1), pages 1-15, March.
    2. Berger, Allen N. & Humphrey, David B., 1997. "Efficiency of financial institutions: International survey and directions for future research," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 175-212, April.
    3. William Greene, 2004. "Distinguishing between heterogeneity and inefficiency: stochastic frontier analysis of the World Health Organization's panel data on national health care systems," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(10), pages 959-980.
    4. Lancaster, Tony, 2000. "The incidental parameter problem since 1948," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 391-413, April.
    5. Bernstein, David, 1996. "Asset quality and scale economies in banking," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 157-166, May.
    6. Gutiérrez-Nieto, Begoña & Serrano-Cinca, Carlos & Mar Molinero, Cecilio, 2007. "Microfinance institutions and efficiency," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 131-142, April.
    7. M. Kabir Hassan & Benito Sanchez, 2009. "Efficiency Analysis of Microfinance Institutions in Developing Countries," NFI Working Papers 2009-WP-12, Indiana State University, Scott College of Business, Networks Financial Institute.
    8. Schmidt, Peter & Sickles, Robin C, 1984. "Production Frontiers and Panel Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 2(4), pages 367-374, October.
    9. Ahmad Nawaz, 2010. "Efficiency and Productivity of Microfinance: Incorporating the Role of Subsidies," Working Papers CEB 10-009.RS, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    10. Luis R. Murillo-Zamorano, 2004. "Economic Efficiency and Frontier Techniques," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(1), pages 33-77, February.
    11. Masood, Tariq & Ahmad, Mohd. Izhar, 2010. "Technical Efficiency of Microfinance Institutions in India- A Stochastic Frontier Approach," MPRA Paper 25454, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Iimi, Atsushi, 2004. "Banking sector reforms in Pakistan: economies of scale and scope, and cost complementarities," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 507-528, June.
    13. Kabir Hassan, M. & Tufte, David R., 2001. "The X-Efficiency of a Group-Based Lending Institution: The Case of the Grameen Bank," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 1071-1082, June.
    14. Battese, G E & Coelli, T J, 1995. "A Model for Technical Inefficiency Effects in a Stochastic Frontier Production Function for Panel Data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 325-332.
    15. Qayyum, Abdul & Ahmad, Munir, 2006. "Efficiency and Sustainability of Micro Finance," MPRA Paper 11674, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Aigner, Dennis & Lovell, C. A. Knox & Schmidt, Peter, 1977. "Formulation and estimation of stochastic frontier production function models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 21-37, July.
    17. Greene, William, 2005. "Reconsidering heterogeneity in panel data estimators of the stochastic frontier model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 126(2), pages 269-303, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item


    Forecasting; GDP revisions; Survey data; Experiment;


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kof:wpskof:12-297. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.