IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

Catching a floating treasure

Listed author(s):
  • Eva Koeberl
  • Christian Mueller
Registered author(s):

    Forecasting real economic activity poses a considerable challenge not only due to hard-to-predict events like the current financial crisis but also due to the fact that targeted variables often undergo significant revisions after their first publication. In this paper we report the results of a genuine ex-ante forecasting experiment in real time. It highlights the difficulties of hitting a moving target and shows that in a realistic setting linear models in combination with survey data perform as good as much more sophisticated approaches.

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.3929/ethz-a-006959225
    Download Restriction: no

    Paper provided by KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich in its series KOF Working papers with number 12-297.

    as
    in new window

    Length: 26 pages
    Date of creation: Jan 2012
    Handle: RePEc:kof:wpskof:12-297
    Contact details of provider: Postal:
    Leonhardstrasse 21, CH-8092 Z├╝rich

    Phone: +41 44 632 42 39
    Fax: +41 44 632 12 18
    Web page: http://www.kof.ethz.ch
    Email:


    More information through EDIRC

    No references listed on IDEAS
    You can help add them by filling out this form.

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kof:wpskof:12-297. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.