Dating Business Cycles in a Historical Perspective: Evidence for Switzerland
In this study we suggest a chronology of the classical business cycle in Switzerland. To this end we use two approaches: the approach of Artis et al. (2004) and an approach based on Markov-switching models (Hamilton, 1989). Our results show that similar conclusions can be reached by applying the two methodologies. Another result is that the chronology obtained displays high concordance with the chronology derived for the Euro Area by the CEPR Business Cycle Dating Committee. A further contribution of our study is that we determine the sensitivity of the chronology obtained with respect to a particular GDP vintage used. For this purpose we employ the real-time database that contains 53 vintages of GDP data starting from 1997Q4 until 2010Q4. The main result of this robustness exercise is that the chronology obtained is stable across different vintages, although some minor differences across vintages can be detected.
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- Tommaso Proietti, 2008.
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- Tommaso Proietti, 2004.
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- Pollock, D. S. G., 2000. "Trend estimation and de-trending via rational square-wave filters," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 99(2), pages 317-334, December.
- Nicolas Cuche-Curti & Pamela Hall & Attilio Zanetti, 2008. "Swiss GDP revisions: A monetary policy perspective," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing,Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2008(2), pages 183-213.
- Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2001. "Extracting, Using and Analysing Cyclical Information," MPRA Paper 15, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Michael Artis & Massimiliano Marcellino & Tommaso Proietti, 2004. "Dating Business Cycles: A Methodological Contribution with an Application to the Euro Area," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(4), pages 537-565, 09.
- Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bry_71-1, October.
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