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Dating Business Cycles in a Historical Perspective

Listed author(s):
  • Boriss Siliverstovs

In this study we suggest a chronology of the classical business cycle in Switzerland. To this end we use two approaches: the approach of Artis et al. (2004) and an approach based on Markov-switching models (Hamilton, 1989). Our results show that similar conclusions can be reached by applying the two methodologies. Another result is that the chronology obtained displays high concordance with the chronology derived for the Euro Area by the CEPR Business Cycle Dating Committee. A further contribution of our study is that we determine the sensitivity of the chronology obtained with respect to a particular GDP vintage used. For this purpose we employ the real-time database that contains 53 vintages of GDP data starting from 1997Q4 until 2010Q4. The main result of this robustness exercise is that the chronology obtained is stable across different vintages, although some minor differences across vintages can be detected.

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File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.3929/ethz-a-006537563
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Paper provided by KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich in its series KOF Working papers with number 11-284.

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Length: 23 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2011
Handle: RePEc:kof:wpskof:11-284
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