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The Speed of Adjustment to Demand Shocks: A Markov-chain Measurement Using Micro Panel Data


  • Christian Mueller
  • Eva M. Koeberl


In this paper we measure the speed at which firms adjust to demand shocks using individual firm data. Identification of shocks is achieved by a combination of quantitative and qualitative judgments on capacity utilisation in micro survey data. A novel feature of our approach is the distinction between positive and negative shocks that allows us to also discriminate between the speed of adjustment following either kind of shock. Furthermore, there is no need for using previous data filtering to extract business cycles or equilibrium definitions but only to observe the states of the firms that define their economic situation. One main result is that the firms' adjustment to these two shocks is varying in speed. It should therefore be paid regard to the separation of positive and negative shocks in empirical and theoretical models. The findings of this paper bear implications for monetary policy making and model building alike.

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  • Christian Mueller & Eva M. Koeberl, 2007. "The Speed of Adjustment to Demand Shocks: A Markov-chain Measurement Using Micro Panel Data," KOF Working papers 07-170, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
  • Handle: RePEc:kof:wpskof:07-170

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    6. Yngve Abrahamsen & Roland Aeppli & Erdal Atukeren & Michael Graff & Christian Müller & Bernd Schips, 2005. "The Swiss Disease: Facts and Artefacts, A Reply to Kehoe and Prescott," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(3), pages 749-758, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bachmann, Rüdiger & Elstner, Steffen, 2015. "Firm optimism and pessimism," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 297-325.
    2. Rolf Schenker, 2008. "Qualitative und quantitative Umfragedaten – ein Vergleich auf Mikroebene," KOF Analysen, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich, vol. 2(2), pages 47-57, June.

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    Demand shock; Markov-chain; Microfoundation;

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