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Turkiye'de Butce Harcamalari: Farkli Dagilimlarin Ekonomik Buyumeye Etkisi

Author

Listed:
  • Umit Ozlale

    () (Ozyegin University, Department of Economics)

  • Mustafa Kerem Yuksel

    () (Turk Hava Kurumu University, International Trade and Finance Department)

Abstract

Bu calisma, Turkiye'nin 2001 krizi sonrasinda uyguladigi maliye politikasina butce harcamalari perspektifinden baktiktan sonra, 2016 ve sonrasinda beklenen dusuk buyume doneminde genisleyici bir maliye politikasinin ekonomik buyume uzerindeki etkilerini tartismaktadir. Calismanin son bolumunde ise kamu harcamalarinin buyumeye katki verecek sekilde dagitilmasi, dinamik bir model cercevesinde incelenmektedir. Sonuclar, 2001 sonrasinda izlenen maliye politikasinin butce disiplini uzerindeki olumlu etkilerini gostermekle beraber, son donemde butcenin harcama katiliginda ve yapisal butce dengesinde bazi olumsuzluklari da tartismaya acmaktadir. Bununla beraber, mevcut kamu borc stoku ve butce disiplini altinda, kamunun tuketim harcamalari yoluyla onumuzdeki dusuk buyume doneminde ekonomiye bir ivme kazandirabilecegi sonucu da elde edilmektedir. Yuksek buyume doneminde ise genisleyici bir maliye politikasinin olumsuz bir etki yapacagi da bulgular arasindadir. Kamu harcamalarinin dagiliminin incelendigi son bolumde, kamunun uretimi arttiracak altyapi yatirimlarina daha fazla agirlik vermesi gerektigi bulunmaktadir. Egitim ve sagliga ayrilan kamu sermaye stokunun buyume uzerindeki etkileri ise fiziksel altyapi yatirimlarina ayrilan kamu sermaye stoku kadar yuksek degildir. Harcama dagilimi ile ilgili bir baska bulgu ise kamunun sermaye yatirimlarina daha fazla agirlik verirken hane halki transferlerini azaltmasi gerektigidir. Son olarak, kamunun idari harcamalarinda verimlilik yoluyla saglanacak bir azalmanin toplumsal fayda uzerinde onemli ve pozitif etkileri gorulmektedir. Bu sonuc da, onumuzdeki donemde kamu verimliligini arttirip idari harcamalari kisacak onlemlerin bir politika onceligi olmasi gerektigini soylemektedir.

Suggested Citation

  • Umit Ozlale & Mustafa Kerem Yuksel, 2016. "Turkiye'de Butce Harcamalari: Farkli Dagilimlarin Ekonomik Buyumeye Etkisi," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1603, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
  • Handle: RePEc:koc:wpaper:1603
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