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Cash Transfers and Socioeconomic Behavior among Older Adults: Evidence from a Regression Discontinuity Design

Author

Listed:
  • Anh Tuyet Nguyen

    (Independent Researcher)

  • Hiroyuki Yamada

    (Keio University)

Abstract

The rapid aging of populations has prompted the introduction of social pension programs aimed at preserving the welfare of the elderly. However, adverse socioeconomic behaviors may dampen the intended policy effects. Using a fuzzy regression discontinuity design, this study examines the impact of social pension receipt on expenditure patterns and material hardship among older adults aged 80 year or older in Vietnam. We find that social pension increases the risk of material hardship in rural areas and reduces non-food expenditures in urban areas. To explain these findings, we explore two potential pathways: economic behavioral mechanisms and social behavioral mechanisms. The results suggest that behavioral responses may offset the intended welfare benefits of social pensions, underscoring the need to account for such adjustments in the design of aging-related policies in developing countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Anh Tuyet Nguyen & Hiroyuki Yamada, 2025. "Cash Transfers and Socioeconomic Behavior among Older Adults: Evidence from a Regression Discontinuity Design," Keio-IES Discussion Paper Series DP2025-027, Institute for Economics Studies, Keio University.
    • Handle: RePEc:keo:dpaper:dp2025-027
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bruce D. Meyer & James X. Sullivan, 2011. "Consumption and Income Poverty Over the Business Cycle," Research in Labor Economics, in: Who Loses in the Downturn? Economic Crisis, Employment and Income Distribution, pages 51-82, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    2. Sebastian Calonico & Matias D. Cattaneo & Max H. Farrell & Roc ́ıo Titiunik, 2017. "rdrobust: Software for regression-discontinuity designs," Stata Journal, StataCorp LLC, vol. 17(2), pages 372-404, June.
    3. repec:eme:rlec11:s0147-9121(2011)0000032005 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Juarez, Laura, 2009. "Crowding out of private support to the elderly: Evidence from a demogrant in Mexico," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(3-4), pages 454-463, April.
    5. Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock, 1997. "Instrumental Variables Regression with Weak Instruments," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(3), pages 557-586, May.
    6. Imbens, Guido W. & Lemieux, Thomas, 2008. "Regression discontinuity designs: A guide to practice," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(2), pages 615-635, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • D10 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - General
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • J14 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped; Non-Labor Market Discrimination
    • O12 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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