IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/kee/keeldp/99-09.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Non-Recovery of Agricultural Tradables and Enduring Rural Poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa

Author

Listed:
  • Peter Lawrence
  • Deryke Belshaw

Abstract

In most sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries there is a strong connection between tradables recovery and the alleviation of rural poverty through higher farm incomes, agricultural wages, rural multiplier effects and inter-sectoral linkages. Liberalisation policies, as elaborated in the Berg report (1991) and subsequent World Bank documents, stressed the importance of reversing stagnation in agricultural tradables by ‘getting prices right’ and removing state monopolies on marketing. Increasing producer prices and devaluing overvalued exchange rates was seen as the means of increasing export revenues and reducing current account deficits. This paper examines the performance of agricultural tradables through the reform phase for a selection of sub-Saharan African countries to see how far recovery has taken place. The descriptive statistics show that agricultural tradables recovery has not been sustained and that in real terms, prices have fallen rather than risen, while the relative prices of non-tradables have increased. A simple model of the determinants of tradables output is tested using data for 14 SSA countries and six major tradables. The results show that, contrary to conventional theory, none of the price variables underlying liberalisation are significantly associated with tradables output, indicating the importance of non-price factors such as the reform of institutions. The final part of the paper examines variations in the relevant institutional arrangements and evidence for ‘export pessimism’ attitudes which may have hindered sustained tradables recovery and the alleviation of rural poverty.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter Lawrence & Deryke Belshaw, 1999. "The Non-Recovery of Agricultural Tradables and Enduring Rural Poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa," Keele Department of Economics Discussion Papers (1995-2001) 99/09, Department of Economics, Keele University.
  • Handle: RePEc:kee:keeldp:99/09
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.keele.ac.uk/depts/ec/wpapers/9909.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Johson, J.E.V. & Shin, H.S., 1995. "A Violation of Dominance anf the Consumption Value of Gambling," Papers 106, University of Southampton - Department of Accounting and Management Science.
    2. Farrell, Lisa & Morgenroth, Edgar & Walker, Ian, 1999. " A Time Series Analysis of U.K. Lottery Sales: Long and Short Run Price Elasticities," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(4), pages 513-526, November.
    3. Scoggins, John F., 1995. "The Lotto and Expected Net Revenue," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 48(1), pages 61-70, March.
    4. Deaton,Angus & Muellbauer,John, 1980. "Economics and Consumer Behavior," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521296762, December.
    5. Scoggins, John F., 1995. "The Lotto and Expected Net Revenue," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 48(1), pages 61-70, March.
    6. Farrell, Lisa, et al, 2000. "The Demand for Lotto: The Role of Conscious Selection," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(2), pages 228-241, April.
    7. Milton Friedman & L. J. Savage, 1948. "The Utility Analysis of Choices Involving Risk," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 56, pages 279-279.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kee:keeldp:99/09. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Martin E. Diedrich). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/dekeeuk.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.