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Modeling and simulation on the COVID-19 infection: preliminary result

Author

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  • Shibata, Tsubasa
  • Kosaka, Hiroyuki

Abstract

In this study, we aim to develop the extended SIR model of epidemiology linked with the high-frequency multi-sector econometric model in order to investigate the impact of epidemic dynamics on the Japanese economy in Japan. Our approach features three aspects. The first one is that as for our epidemic model, we develop two time-varying parameters, namely an infection rate and a recovery/remote rate, which are crucial parameters in the conventional SIR model. Besides, these parameters are endogenized in our extended SIR model linked to the multi-sector econometric model, enabling to better understand the mechanism that infection and recovery rates increase or decrease as well as capture the changes of the epidemic behavior timely. The third one is that we construct the monthly econometric model that is composed of multi-sector industries. Our approach allows us to timely and exactly grasp the status of Japanese economy in respond to COVID-19 epidemic.

Suggested Citation

  • Shibata, Tsubasa & Kosaka, Hiroyuki, 2021. "Modeling and simulation on the COVID-19 infection: preliminary result," IDE Discussion Papers 816, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    • Handle: RePEc:jet:dpaper:dpaper816
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    File URL: https://ir.ide.go.jp/?action=repository_action_common_download&item_id=52092&item_no=1&attribute_id=22&file_no=1
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    Cited by:

    1. So Kubota, 2021. "The macroeconomics of COVID-19 exit strategy: the case of Japan," The Japanese Economic Review, Springer, vol. 72(4), pages 651-682, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; SIR; Monthly Macro Econometric Model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • O14 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology
    • O30 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - General

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