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Negative Bubbles and Unpredictability of Financial Markets: The Asian Currency Crisis in 1997

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  • Kuchiki, Akifumi

Abstract

We obtain the three following conclusions. First, business cycles depend on prices of stocks and primary commodities such as crude oil. Second, stock prices and oil prices generate psychological cycles with different periods. Third, there exist cases of "negative bubble" under certain conditions. Integrating the above results, we can find a role of a government in financial market in developing countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Kuchiki, Akifumi, 2006. "Negative Bubbles and Unpredictability of Financial Markets: The Asian Currency Crisis in 1997," IDE Discussion Papers 65, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
  • Handle: RePEc:jet:dpaper:dpaper65
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    File URL: https://ir.ide.go.jp/?action=repository_action_common_download&item_id=38101&item_no=1&attribute_id=22&file_no=1
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cycles; Unpredictability; Negative bubbles; Governments; Financial market; Money; Financial crises; Asia; 政府; 金融市場; 貨幣; 金融危機; アジア;

    JEL classification:

    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance

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