Evaluating the market potential of innovations: A structured survey of diffusion models
This paper provides a systematic methodology to identify general innovation diffusion patterns in a given case study: First, an analytical framework is introduced which structures a review of innovation diffusion research. This framework may be used to structure the analysis of a case study. Second, a classification of innovation diffusion models is developed by focusing on the analytical hypotheses and stylized facts, which they assume. This categorization allows selecting appropriate models for a given case study based on the matching of the model's hypotheses and case study's characteristics. This provides an structured approach to allow innovators to evaluate ex-ante the market potential and the diffusion process, i.e. commercial success of their new product or practice. The paper concludes with critical recommendations on the use of innovation diffusion models. Based on the systematic approach to survey diffusion models, future research opportunities are outlined.
|Date of creation:||11 Jun 2006|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Carl-Zeiss-Strasse 3, 07743 JENA|
Phone: +049 3641/ 9 43000
Fax: +049 3641/ 9 43000
Web page: http://www.wiwiss.uni-jena.de/index.html
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Postal: If a paper is not downloadable, please contact the author(s) or the library of University of Jena, not the archive maintainer.|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- W. Kwasnicki, 2007. "Schumpeterian Modelling," Chapters, in: Elgar Companion to Neo-Schumpeterian Economics, chapter 25 Edward Elgar Publishing.
- Sudeep Haldar & Vithala Rao, 1998. "A micro-analytic threshold model for the timing of first purchases of durable goods," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(7), pages 959-974.
- Arthur, W Brian, 1989. "Competing Technologies, Increasing Returns, and Lock-In by Historical Events," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(394), pages 116-31, March.
- Richard R Nelson & Alexander Peterhansl & Bhaven Sampat, 2004. "Why and how innovations get adopted: a tale of four models," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press, vol. 13(5), pages 679-699, October.
- Geroski, Paul A, 1999.
"Models of Technology Diffusion,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
2146, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Drew Fudenberg & David K. Levine & Jean Tirole, 1985. "Infinite-Horizon Models of Bargaining with One-Sided Incomplete Information," Levine's Working Paper Archive 1098, David K. Levine.
- Beise, Marian, 2004. "Lead markets: country-specific drivers of the global diffusion of innovations," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(6-7), pages 997-1018, September.
- Jennifer F. Reinganum, 1981. "On the Diffusion of New Technology: A Game Theoretic Approach," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 48(3), pages 395-405.
- Bruce Robinson & Chet Lakhani, 1975. "Dynamic Price Models for New-Product Planning," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 21(10), pages 1113-1122, June.
- Parker, Philip M., 1994. "Aggregate diffusion forecasting models in marketing: A critical review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 353-380, September.
- Michael L. Katz & Carl Shapiro, 1994. "Systems Competition and Network Effects," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 8(2), pages 93-115, Spring.
- Rabik Ar Chatterjee & Jehoshua Eliashberg, 1990. "The Innovation Diffusion Process in a Heterogeneous Population: A Micromodeling Approach," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 36(9), pages 1057-1079, September.
- Lundvall, Bengt-Ake & Johnson, Bjorn & Andersen, Esben Sloth & Dalum, Bent, 2002. "National systems of production, innovation and competence building," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 213-231, February.
- Dan Horsky & Leonard S. Simon, 1983. "Advertising and the Diffusion of New Products," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 2(1), pages 1-17.
- Deroian, Frederic, 2002. "Formation of social networks and diffusion of innovations," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 835-846, July.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jen:jenasw:2006-21. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.