Instability of paddy production and regional food insecurity in Sri Lanka

Addressing food insecurity has become an important policy issue due to a host of factors such as climate change, export restraints, alternative uses of food, e.g., as bio-fuels and income induced demand changes. The world has to find avenues to provide sufficient food to cater for the new developments in the food sector taking into consideration the risks of the changes these may effect on the environment. Paddy, the staple food crop of Sri Lankans, plays a significant role in stabilizing food security in the country. The production levels of paddy have been accompanied with wide regional variations due to irregularities in the rainfall patterns and cyclical effects of the production fluctuations. More thrust has been placed on irrigated paddy production in the areas of the dry zone, while traditional areas of the wet zone have been subjected to immense population pressure amidst various institutional arrangements. At present, more than half of the paddy output comes from the major irrigation schemes. The wide fluctuations in paddy production levels in these areas indicate the potential for regional vulnerability for food insecurity. This paper examines the growth of paddy production and evaluates the instability of paddy production in terms of the areas cultivated, productions and yields for the dry zone (DZ), intermediate zone (IZ) and wet zone (WZ) and districts in these climatic zones. The growth rates for different zones were estimated using a log linear function. The instability of area, production and yield was measured using a coefficient of the variation (CV). The CV of production, area and the yield for three major climatic zones and seasons are estimated. In addition, the indices for the risk of cultivation and amount of green vegetation on the island were used as indicators of instability. Paddy production has increased at the rate of around 2 % and 1 % per annum in the DZ and IZ, respectively; and has decreased in the WZ at the rate of 9 % per annum. The CVs for paddy production in the DZ, IZ and WZ in the maha and yala seasons are 18.15, 18.36, and 9.2 and 30.33, 25.38 and 19.22, respectively. The results indicate that instability of paddy production in the WZ is much lower than those of the other two zones. The lowest levels of instability with respect to production (Matara), yield (Kegalle) and harvested extent (Ratnapura) were observed in the wet zone districts. The highest level of instability with respect to area, yield, production and harvested extent was observed in the Anuradhapura District. In the maha season, the IZ shows the lowest variation in the sown extent and highest variation in the harvested extent, and it indicates the higher risk of production at the later stage of the crop. The IZ shows the general risk in paddy production in the yala season, indicated by the highest instability in both sown and harvested extents. Similar observations for the IZ were observed in the sown to harvest and CV of vegetation index. The negative growth rate observed in the WZ was brought about by the reduction of the cultivated area. The higher stability in production could be utilized to augment regional food security as well as the supply of seed paddy for other regions. Thus the results highlight the importance of maintaining WZ as a buffer zone of production and investments in irrigation in the IZ to secure the availability of paddy.