IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

Growing Season Forecasts of Harvest Time Corn Prices

Listed author(s):
  • O'Brien, Daniel
  • Hayenga, Marvin L.
  • Babcock, Bruce A.

A procedure is developed for forecasting the probability distribution of harvest-time average corn futures prices. Forecasts are based on a harvest corn futures price model. Conditional forecasts are made at monthly intervals during the 1992 to 1994 corn growing seasons using the harvest corn futures price model with measures of model estimation error, preharvest corn supply and demand estimates, and historic variances and covariances relative to harvest-time estimates together in a Monte Carlo multivariate forecasting procedure. The accuracy and distributional properties of forecasts from this forecasting procedure are compared with alternative options-based and futures forecasts for the 1992 to 1994 period. Results indicate positive skewness in distributions from both the Monte Carlo forecast procedure and the options-based forecasts. There was also a strong tendency for forecast distributions from both sources to become tighter as the growing season progressed with one notable exception during mid-August 1993. The price model forecasts compare favorably with options-based forecasts and with futures prices when analyzing the harvest price forecast accuracy of mid-June and mid-July projections for the 1992 to 1994 period. The significance of this research lies in the development of a procedure for integrating supply and demand forecast uncertainty throughout the corn growing season with a corn price model to derive price forecast probability distributions. Potential limitations include forecast model inaccuracy and incorrect measures of model explanatory variable forecast variances and covariances. If further improvements can be made in accuracy, these findings imply that this procedure has potential to improve the probabilistic content of preharvest grain price forecasts relative to alternative options and futures market-based price forecast sources.

To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online.
2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

Paper provided by Iowa State University, Department of Economics in its series Staff General Research Papers Archive with number 5236.

in new window

Date of creation: 01 May 1996
Publication status: Published in Review of Agricultural Economics, May 1996, vol. 18 no. 2, pp. 167-180
Handle: RePEc:isu:genres:5236
Contact details of provider: Postal:
Iowa State University, Dept. of Economics, 260 Heady Hall, Ames, IA 50011-1070

Phone: +1 515.294.6741
Fax: +1 515.294.0221
Web page:

More information through EDIRC

No references listed on IDEAS
You can help add them by filling out this form.

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:isu:genres:5236. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Curtis Balmer)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.