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Exchange Rate Market Tensions in a Small Open Economy During the Transition to EMU: can Asian countries learn from the Portuguese experience in 1992-1995?

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  • Margarida Abreu

Abstract

This paper studies the various Portuguese escudo exchange rate crises during the period 1992-95. Were they the result of the market evaluation of the Portuguese economy fundamentals? Were they the outcome of the expected political changes? Or, to the contrary, can we suggest self-fulfilling crises? After a general introduction, the paper starts with an estimation of the exchange rate policy credibility a la Svensson and a brief description of the escudo exchange rate crises. The paper then presents different theoretical explanations for speculative attacks, paying special attention to the new formalizations of the behavior of market agents. We conclude with some non-native remarks concerning the Portuguese exchange rate crises, and some lessons that Asian countries can learn from the Portuguese experience.

Suggested Citation

  • Margarida Abreu, 1999. "Exchange Rate Market Tensions in a Small Open Economy During the Transition to EMU: can Asian countries learn from the Portuguese experience in 1992-1995?," Working Papers Department of Economics 1999/07, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
  • Handle: RePEc:ise:isegwp:wp71999
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    Cited by:

    1. Margarida Abreu, 2003. "Contagion Phenomena in Financial Crises: Evidence from the Portuguese and Spanish Exchange Rate Crises in the Early Nineties," Working Papers Department of Economics 2003/05, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rate policy; exchange rate crisis; uncertainty; financial market agents' behavior.;

    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

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