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GECO2015 Global Energy and Climate Outlook: Road to Paris. Assessment of Low Emission Levels under World Action Integrating National Contributions

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This report presents the modelling work quoted in the EC communication "The Paris Protocol - a blueprint for tackling global climate change beyond 2020” in the EU’s Energy Union package. It examines the effects of a Baseline scenario where current trends continue beyond 2020, and of a Global Mitigation scenario in line with keeping global warming below 2°C. The analysis uses the POLES and GEM-E3 models in a framework where economic welfare is maximised while tackling climate change. In the Baseline, emissions trigger +3.5°C global warming. In the Global Mitigation scenario, all regions realise domestic emission cuts to stay below 2°C, with various profiles in 2020-2050 depending on their national characteristics. A significant transformation of the energy systems and non-energy measures enable regions at all levels of income to move to a low-emission growth pathway. Sectors linked (directly or indirectly) to carbon-intensive processes adjust their investments to be competitive in a low-emission environment. A significant number of regions draw economic benefits from shifting their expenditures on fossil energy imports to investments. GDP growth rates are marginally affected in most regions by global efforts to reduce emissions. Crucially, high growth rates are maintained in fast-growing low-income regions. Economic costs are reduced further when countries use emission permit auction revenues for other tax reductions. Delaying actions to stay below 2°C add large economic costs.

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  • Ariane Labat & Alban Kitous & Miles Perry & Bert Saveyn & Toon Vandyck & Zoi Vrontisi, 2015. "GECO2015 Global Energy and Climate Outlook: Road to Paris. Assessment of Low Emission Levels under World Action Integrating National Contributions," JRC Working Papers JRC95892, Joint Research Centre (Seville site).
  • Handle: RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc95892
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    File URL: http://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC95892
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    Keywords

    GHG emissions; climate mitigation; international negotiations; COP21; IPCC; UNFCCC; modelling; GEM-E3; POLES; Road to Paris;

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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