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O Impacto de Anúncios Econômicos no Mercado Futuro Brasileiro de Ações, Juros e Câmbio

Author

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  • Francisco Eduardo de Luna e Almeida Santos
  • Márcio Gomes Pinto Garcia
  • Marcelo Cunha Medeiros

Abstract

Neste estudo, a relação entre fundamentos macroeconômicos e preço de ativos é analisada por meio da estimação do impacto de anúncios macroeconômicos no mercado futuro brasileiro. Usando-se dados em alta frequência entre outubro de 2008 e janeiro de 2011, os resultados apontam para a dominância de eventos externos nos mercados futuros de câmbio e ações, enquanto que o impacto no mercado futuro de juros é restrito a eventos domésticos. As evidências apontam também que o impacto é condicional ao estado da economia. In this paper, the relationship between macroeconomic fundamentals and asset prices is explored by estimating the impact of macroeconomic announcements in the Brazilian futures market. Using intraday data from October 2008 to January 2011, results show that external macroeconomic announcements dominate price changes in the Foreign Exchange and Ibovespa futures markets, while the impact of the domestic ones is mainly restricted to Interest Rate futures contracts. There is also evidence that price reactions are conditional on the state of the economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Francisco Eduardo de Luna e Almeida Santos & Márcio Gomes Pinto Garcia & Marcelo Cunha Medeiros, 2016. "O Impacto de Anúncios Econômicos no Mercado Futuro Brasileiro de Ações, Juros e Câmbio," Discussion Papers 2184, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
  • Handle: RePEc:ipe:ipetds:2184
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