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Efeito Dose Resposta do Fundo Constitucional de Financiamento do Centro-Oeste (FCO) do Estado de Goiás

Author

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  • Guilherme Resende Oliveira
  • Rafael Terra de Menezes
  • Guilherme Mendes Resende

Abstract

O estudo avalia o Fundo Constitucional de Financiamento do Centro-Oeste (FCO) no estado de Goiás entre os anos de 2004 e 2011 por meio dos microdados da Relação Anual de Informações Sociais (Rais), e dos empréstimos do Programa Empresarial do FCO. Os impactos dos financiamentos no crescimento do emprego e salários das empresas instaladas no estado foram estatisticamente significantes e positivos. Os métodos utilizados foram o propensity score matching (PSM) e o propensity score generalizado (PSG), que identifica a variável de tratamento como contínua – inédito na literatura de avaliação de fundos regionais. Ademais, o efeito dose indica que o valor do empréstimo influencia na quantidade de empregos gerados, assim como na variação dos salários, em os resultados do PSG sugerem que, até o limite de aproximadamente R$ 200 mil, as variações proporcionais de emprego e salário são maiores quanto maiores os montantes contratados de crédito. The study evaluates the Constitutional Financing Fund for the Center-West (FCO) in the state of Goiás between the years 2004 and 2011, using Rais microdata, and loans from the FCO “Empresarial” Program. The results show a positive and statistically significant impact of the FCO on employment and wage growth at the firm level. We use the Propensity Score Matching (PSM) and the Generalized Propensity Score (GPS) methods. The GPS identifies the treatment variable as continuous. This approach is original in the literature on regional funds evaluation. Moreover, the dose response results indicate that the loans values affect wages and employment, as well the PSG results suggest that around the limit of R$ 200,000.00 the proportional variation of employment and wages are higher as higher are the loans.

Suggested Citation

  • Guilherme Resende Oliveira & Rafael Terra de Menezes & Guilherme Mendes Resende, 2015. "Efeito Dose Resposta do Fundo Constitucional de Financiamento do Centro-Oeste (FCO) do Estado de Goiás," Discussion Papers 2133, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
  • Handle: RePEc:ipe:ipetds:2133
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