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Modelando o Processo de Seleção dos Portos para Movimentação das Cargas no Comércio Exterior Brasileiro

Author

Listed:
  • Alexandre Xavier Ywata Carvalho
  • Paulo César Coutinho
  • André Rossi de Oliveira
  • Paulo Augusto P. de Britto
  • Paulo Roberto Barbosa Lustosa

Abstract

Neste estudo, apresentamos modelos para analisar os impactos dos custos logísticos de transporte sobre a decisão de que porto utilizar para exportações ou importações de cargas no Brasil. Para isto, emprega-se técnica baseada em distribuições de repartição fracional (fractional split-distribution model), para a qual a variável resposta é a participação dos portos nas cargas exportadas ou importadas por determinada microrregião. A estimação dos parâmetros do modelo é feita via maximização da função e quasi-verossimilhança, utilizando-se informações de comércio exterior brasileiro. Confirmando-se o que foi observado em outros estudos, o fator geográfico mostrou-se muito importante para a escolha dos agentes em relação a que porto utilizar para exportar ou importar seus produtos. Com base nos modelos estimados, é possível simular potenciais impactos de diferentes cenários de alterações nos custos de transportes sobre a concorrência entre portos, nos mercados geográficos brasileiros. A partir dos resultados das simulações, o estudo traz uma análise qualitativa sobre potenciais impactos de diversos projetos atuais de melhorias nas malhas ferroviárias e rodoviárias, em termos de concorrência no setor portuário brasileiro. In this paper, we present some models to analyze the impacts of surface transportation logistic costs on importers and exporters decisions on which ports to choose for foreign trade operations. We employed a technique based on fractional split distributions, in which the dependent variable corresponds to the share of cargo across the available ports for imports and exports. The geographic observational unit used was the microrregion (Brazil is divided in more than five hundred microrregions). Parameter estimation is done by maximum quasi-likelihood, based on foreign trade data. The results confirmed conclusions from other studies in the literature: the geographic factors and internal transportation costs are very important for importers and exporters decisions. Based on the estimated models, we simulate potential impacts of different scenarios for changes in internal transportation costs on the inter port competition in Brazil.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexandre Xavier Ywata Carvalho & Paulo César Coutinho & André Rossi de Oliveira & Paulo Augusto P. de Britto & Paulo Roberto Barbosa Lustosa, 2015. "Modelando o Processo de Seleção dos Portos para Movimentação das Cargas no Comércio Exterior Brasileiro," Discussion Papers 2093, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
  • Handle: RePEc:ipe:ipetds:2093
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