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Política Monetária E Câmbio:Efeitos Sobre Preços Desagregados Em Um Modelo Favar Para O Brasil

Author

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  • Elcyon Caiado Lima
  • Thiago Sevilhano Martinez
  • Vinícius dos Santos Cerqueira

Abstract

Este trabalho investiga o efeito de choques monetários e cambiais sobre a dinâmica de preços desagregados do Índice Nacional de Preços ao Consumidor Amplo (IPCA), de 1999 a 2011. Para tanto, os resultados foram analisados com o emprego de um modelo de autorregressão vetorial estrutural aumentada por fatores dinâmicos – factor-augmented vector autoregressive (Favar) –, apresentados por diferentes níveis de agregação. O modelo é estimado por técnicas bayesianas, e as funções de resposta-impulso são construídas utilizando restrições de sinais sobre as respostas de variáveis macroeconômicas. Os principais resultados foram: i) 65,9% dos preços dos subitens investigados caem após um choque monetário e 50,7% sobem após um choque cambial; ii) apenas 2,6% dos subitens (peso de 1,6% no índice total) apresentaram price puzzle para choques monetários e 2,3% (peso de 0,5% no índice total) para choques cambiais; iii) choques macroeconômicos são mais persistentes do que os choques específicos; e iv) as respostas são diferenciadas conforme o setor considerado. This paper investigates the effect of monetary and exchange rate shocks on disaggregated prices of the Brazilian Consumer Price Index (IPCA), from 1999 to 2011. We analyze the results of a factor-augmented vector autoregressive model (Favar), which are presented by different levels of aggregation. We estimate the model using Bayesian techniques, and construct impulse-response functions using sign restrictions over the responses of macroeconomic variables. The main results were: i) 65.9% of the surveyed prices at the sub-items level fell after a monetary shock and 50.7% rose after exchange rate’s shock; ii) only 2.6% of the sub-items (weight of 1.6% of the index) showed the price puzzle for monetary shocks and 2.3% (weight of 0.5% of the index) for exchange rate shocks; iii) macroeconomic shocks are more persistent than series-specific shocks; iv) the answers are different according to the sector considered.

Suggested Citation

  • Elcyon Caiado Lima & Thiago Sevilhano Martinez & Vinícius dos Santos Cerqueira, 2015. "Política Monetária E Câmbio:Efeitos Sobre Preços Desagregados Em Um Modelo Favar Para O Brasil," Discussion Papers 2072, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
  • Handle: RePEc:ipe:ipetds:2072
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