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O Fortalecimento do Sistema Financeiro Doméstico e o Fluxo de Capital Para Economias Emergentes

Author

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  • Ajax Moreira
  • Katia Rocha
  • Marcos da Silveira

Abstract

Este estudo tem como objetivo analisar o papel do sistema financeiro doméstico como mitigador de eventos de paradas súbitas e condicionante de fluxos de capital de um grupo de quatorze economias emergentes no período 1999-2013, em especial em face de cenários externos desfavoráveis, como aumento dos juros internacionais e aversão ao risco global. Os países analisados – Argentina, Brasil, Chile, Colômbia, Indonésia, Malásia, México, Peru, Filipinas, Rússia, África do Sul, Tailândia, Turquia e Ucrânia – representavam, em agosto de 2014, aproximadamente 80% do índice de títulos da dívida de mercados emergentes (Embi Plus) e 60% do índice Embi Global. Procurou-se distinguir o efeito sobre diversos tipos de fluxos de capital: fluxo de entrada de investimento estrangeiro direto (FDI), fluxo de entrada de investimento em carteira (ações, títulos, derivativos e outros investimentos) e fluxo líquido (entrada e saída de todos os tipos de capital). O resultado suporta evidências de que o desenvolvimento do sistema financeiro doméstico propicia o aumento dos fluxos de entrada de capital e diminui a probabilidade de ocorrência de parada súbita destes fluxos. Este fato motiva políticas públicas que incentivem o desenvolvimento e fortalecimento do sistema financeiro doméstico nos países emergentes. The objective of this is study is to assert the role of domestic financial system as mitigating of sudden stops episodes and driver of capital flows in a group of 14 emerging economies in the period of 1999-2013, especially in face of unfavorable external environment such as high international interest rate or global risk aversion. The countries analyzed – Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Mexico, Peru, Philippines, Russia, South Africa, Thailand, Turkey and Ukraine, represented in August 2014 roughly 80% of the Embi Plus and 60% of Embi Global. We work with distinct types of capital flows: Inflow of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), Inflow of Portfólio (stocks, bonds, derivatives and other investments) and Net Capital (inflow and outflow of all types of capital). The result support evidence that the development of domestic financial system allows an increase of capital flow and a decrease of sudden stops probability. This fact support public policies that improve development and strength of domestic financial system in emerging economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Ajax Moreira & Katia Rocha & Marcos da Silveira, 2015. "O Fortalecimento do Sistema Financeiro Doméstico e o Fluxo de Capital Para Economias Emergentes," Discussion Papers 2071, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
  • Handle: RePEc:ipe:ipetds:2071
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