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O Efeito China nas Exportações Brasileiras em Terceiros Mercados: Uma Análise do Constant Market Share

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  • Lia Valls Pereira

Abstract

Estudos recentes chamam atenção que a China poderá limitar a diversificação e a escalada para produtos de maior conteúdo tecnológico das exportações de países, como o Brasil, nos seus mercados tradicionais de manufaturas. O objetivo da pesquisa é estimar o deslocamento das exportações brasileiras pela China nos mercados dos países sul-americanos, México, Estados Unidos, União Europeia e países africanos (Nigéria, África do Sul e Moçambique) entre 2002 e 2011. Foi utilizado o modelo de constant market share (CMS) para estimar as perdas brasileiras de produtos coincidentes com a China nos mercados estudados. O estudo mostra que as perdas atribuídas à China foram mais elevadas nos Estados Unidos no período 2002-2006 e na América do Sul cresceram após esse período. Além disso, na região sul-americana as maiores perdas estão no Chile, na Colômbia, no Equador, no Peru e na Venezuela, mas cresce nos mercados dos outros parceiros, em especial na Argentina. A proximidade geográfica e a concessão de regime de livre comércio intrarregional para um conjunto amplo de produtos não impediu o efeito deslocamento pela China na região sul-americana. Assim, a resposta do Brasil deve ser na direção de identificar e fortalecer suas bases competitivas na região por meio de políticas favoráveis à criação de cadeias produtivas regionais/cadeias de valor regionais. Recent studies have called attention that China may limit the export diversification and technological upgrading of countries such as Brazil, in its traditional markets for manufactures. The aim of the research is to estimate the displacement of Brazilian exports by China in the markets of South American countries, Mexico, the United States, European Union and African countries (Nigeria, South Africa and Mozambique) between 2002-2011.The model of constant market share (CMS) was used to estimate the loss of Brazil and China coincident exports in the markets selected. The study shows that the losses attributed to China were higher in the United States in the years 2002-2006 and in South America increased thereafter. Moreover, in the South American region the biggest losses are in Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru and Venezuela, but have been increasing in the markets of the other partners, especially in Argentina.Geographical proximity and the granting of a system of free intra – regional trade to a wide range of products did not prevent the displacement effect by China in the South American region Thus, Brazil’s response should be in the direction of identifying and strengthening its competitive bases in the region through favorable policies to the creation of productive complementary – regional value chains.

Suggested Citation

  • Lia Valls Pereira, 2014. "O Efeito China nas Exportações Brasileiras em Terceiros Mercados: Uma Análise do Constant Market Share," Discussion Papers 2002, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
  • Handle: RePEc:ipe:ipetds:2002
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